How true is the phrase "Yoruba won't vote Jonathan"?
The political terrain of the South West is controlled/shared among the Social Democratic Party, Accord Party, All Progressive Congress, People's Democratic Party and the usual dark horse Labour Party. The SDP, PDP, Accord and LP are queuing behind the re-election of President Jonathan. Only the APC is with Muhammadu Buhari. While the SDP and Accord may sound like a lightweight to some readers, indices on ground shows otherwise. A Look at the present political fortunes of pro-Jonathan parties in the SW..
Social Democratic Party
The SDP led by Olu Falae and Osoba is more prominent in Ogun State. All 3 Senators from the state are members of SDP. The party also boasts of 5 out of 9 House of Reps delegation from Ogun state(2 each for PDP and APC), the Deputy Governor, former cabinet members of Amosun, and some state legislators. In other words, neither the APC nor the PDP can boast of any incumbent Senator from Ogun State. SDP is also very prominent in Oyo State with Mr Makinde, a popular millionaire leading its rank. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll.
Accord Party
Accord Party is more formidable in Oyo State, especially Ibadan. Of the three Senators from Oyo, two(2) are of Accord Party, the other is a PDP man. The party led by the popular charismatic former Governor Ladoja is the leading party for the Oyo State Guber election. As long as Oyo is concerned, Accord Party is a force to be reckoned with. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll
Labour Party
Labour Party is the usual dark horse in Yoruba politics since 2007. It is prominent in Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo and Ogun States. In Oyo State, it is led by exGovernor Alao Akala who is the Governorship candidate. Akala's stronghold is his Ogbomoso town. The party is also relatively popular in Oyo town and Ibadan of the state. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll
People's Democratic Party
Peoples' Democratic Party arose from its 2011 misfortune/near extinction to become a force again in 2015. No thanks to the division of its party in Oyo, Ekiti, Lagos and Ogun States. Fortunately for the party, they are now united in Lagos(for the first time since 2006), Ogun State (after 5 years of division), Ekiti and Ondo States(after almost one year of division). In other words, the party is participating in 2015 as a united team- except in Oyo state. In Ogun State, the PDP boasts of two Reps members and about 10 State legislators. In Oyo state, it boasts of one senate seat. In Ekiti, it recently won the Governorship election in all 16 LGA. In Ondo State, the defection of Governor Mimiko and two Senators from the State means a lot to the party. Though it almost caused rift among members of the State chapter of the party. In Lagos state, for the first time since 2005, the party is working together as a team. Jonathan is the PDP Candidate.
Afenifere And OPC Favor Jonathan
The endorsement of Jonathan's candidacy by the influential pan Yoruba group Afenifere and O'dua Peoples' Congress will in no small way influence the voting pattern of their members-most of whom are grassroot people. Otunba Gani Adams, National Coordinator, OPC said, “we took time to study the situation of things and we took time to look at the capacity of the candidates involved. I won’t deceive you, from the National Coordinating Council, we have decided to inform our followers that they should vote for President Jonathan.”
The National leader of OPC Chief Fedrick Fasheun had earlier threw his support behind the re-election bid of President Jonathan.
However, another influential group, The Yoruba Council of Elders refused to publicly endorse any of the candidates.
A Look at APC:
No doubt, APC controls 4 out of the Six government houses in the SW as at today, but the party has seen a huge dip in his political fortune in the region. One of the factor that helped the party to win Oyo and Ogun States in 2011 was the heavy factionalisaton within the PDP. Today, the APC in Ogun has had a major split with the SDP coming out a very strong beneficiary taking all Senators. The PDP in Ogun State is united. The APC also lost ALL their Senators in Oyo state, they can't boast of any today- though they gained a Senator in Ondo. In Lagos State, the influential Justice Group left the APC for the PDP. In Ekiti State, the APC was rejected in 2014. In Osun where it hold sway, the anger of civil servants over delay in payment of five(5) months salary may reflect at the Presidential poll. In Ondo State, the APC is not a force as it has little or no structure on ground.
Conclusion
With the Leading parties in the SW and two highly influential groups queuing behind the President's re-election, it is safe to say that the Yoruba nation favors President Jonathan, while the APC candidate Gen Buhari plays second fiddle. Though it won't be fair to write off APC from the political calculation of the SW, yet it will amount to misinformation to say the APC is in control of the region.
The political terrain of the South West is controlled/shared among the Social Democratic Party, Accord Party, All Progressive Congress, People's Democratic Party and the usual dark horse Labour Party. The SDP, PDP, Accord and LP are queuing behind the re-election of President Jonathan. Only the APC is with Muhammadu Buhari. While the SDP and Accord may sound like a lightweight to some readers, indices on ground shows otherwise. A Look at the present political fortunes of pro-Jonathan parties in the SW..
Social Democratic Party
The SDP led by Olu Falae and Osoba is more prominent in Ogun State. All 3 Senators from the state are members of SDP. The party also boasts of 5 out of 9 House of Reps delegation from Ogun state(2 each for PDP and APC), the Deputy Governor, former cabinet members of Amosun, and some state legislators. In other words, neither the APC nor the PDP can boast of any incumbent Senator from Ogun State. SDP is also very prominent in Oyo State with Mr Makinde, a popular millionaire leading its rank. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll.
Accord Party
Accord Party is more formidable in Oyo State, especially Ibadan. Of the three Senators from Oyo, two(2) are of Accord Party, the other is a PDP man. The party led by the popular charismatic former Governor Ladoja is the leading party for the Oyo State Guber election. As long as Oyo is concerned, Accord Party is a force to be reckoned with. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll
Labour Party
Labour Party is the usual dark horse in Yoruba politics since 2007. It is prominent in Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo and Ogun States. In Oyo State, it is led by exGovernor Alao Akala who is the Governorship candidate. Akala's stronghold is his Ogbomoso town. The party is also relatively popular in Oyo town and Ibadan of the state. The party is queuing behind Jonathan in the Presidential poll
People's Democratic Party
Peoples' Democratic Party arose from its 2011 misfortune/near extinction to become a force again in 2015. No thanks to the division of its party in Oyo, Ekiti, Lagos and Ogun States. Fortunately for the party, they are now united in Lagos(for the first time since 2006), Ogun State (after 5 years of division), Ekiti and Ondo States(after almost one year of division). In other words, the party is participating in 2015 as a united team- except in Oyo state. In Ogun State, the PDP boasts of two Reps members and about 10 State legislators. In Oyo state, it boasts of one senate seat. In Ekiti, it recently won the Governorship election in all 16 LGA. In Ondo State, the defection of Governor Mimiko and two Senators from the State means a lot to the party. Though it almost caused rift among members of the State chapter of the party. In Lagos state, for the first time since 2005, the party is working together as a team. Jonathan is the PDP Candidate.
Afenifere And OPC Favor Jonathan
The endorsement of Jonathan's candidacy by the influential pan Yoruba group Afenifere and O'dua Peoples' Congress will in no small way influence the voting pattern of their members-most of whom are grassroot people. Otunba Gani Adams, National Coordinator, OPC said, “we took time to study the situation of things and we took time to look at the capacity of the candidates involved. I won’t deceive you, from the National Coordinating Council, we have decided to inform our followers that they should vote for President Jonathan.”
The National leader of OPC Chief Fedrick Fasheun had earlier threw his support behind the re-election bid of President Jonathan.
However, another influential group, The Yoruba Council of Elders refused to publicly endorse any of the candidates.
A Look at APC:
No doubt, APC controls 4 out of the Six government houses in the SW as at today, but the party has seen a huge dip in his political fortune in the region. One of the factor that helped the party to win Oyo and Ogun States in 2011 was the heavy factionalisaton within the PDP. Today, the APC in Ogun has had a major split with the SDP coming out a very strong beneficiary taking all Senators. The PDP in Ogun State is united. The APC also lost ALL their Senators in Oyo state, they can't boast of any today- though they gained a Senator in Ondo. In Lagos State, the influential Justice Group left the APC for the PDP. In Ekiti State, the APC was rejected in 2014. In Osun where it hold sway, the anger of civil servants over delay in payment of five(5) months salary may reflect at the Presidential poll. In Ondo State, the APC is not a force as it has little or no structure on ground.
Conclusion
With the Leading parties in the SW and two highly influential groups queuing behind the President's re-election, it is safe to say that the Yoruba nation favors President Jonathan, while the APC candidate Gen Buhari plays second fiddle. Though it won't be fair to write off APC from the political calculation of the SW, yet it will amount to misinformation to say the APC is in control of the region.
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