APC and the collective action dilemma

Nigeria’s foremost opposition party, the All Progressives Congress, recently concluded a nationwide membership registration. It was reported to be successful in many states. For instance in Bayelsa State, the home state of the President, more than 47,000 adults registered. For a state with a voting strength of about 400,000 and being the home state of the incumbent President, that number is quite significant. Out of the total, there are about 4,000 persons from President Goodluck Jonathan’s home Ogbia Local Government Area. A greater turnout was experienced in Rivers State though there were efforts to disrupt the process by those who were unsettled by the outcome.

The party also organised a successful conference that attracted a speaker who raised a few relevant but contentious issues. It has also reportedly hired AKPD Message and Media, the same consultants who worked for the US President, Barack Obama, to boost its electoral chances in the forthcoming elections. For many people within the party, displacing the ruling Peoples Democratic Party at the centre will be a fait accompli in a matter of time. I completely disagree with this view.

While the APC has got bright chances of achieving its objective, its biggest enemy is the collective action dilemma inherent in our country. It is clear that many Nigerians are visibly angry and discontented about the flaws of the current administration. The corruption scandals have become a little too embarrassing or even unbearable. The security situation has worsened and the government has almost lost control. From the temperature of the polity, a majority of Nigerians desire change. That is our collective intention.  We desire  good governance as we believe that it will benefit the country in the long and short terms. However, many of us are reluctant to take any visible bold action to achieve this, regardless of the awareness that it will be in the best interest of all. We prefer to be the free rider who not make the requisite sacrifice to achieve a collective good. Let someone else challenge the status quo as long as we are able to benefit from the current state of affairs – after all, we are such skilled operators able to take advantage of the situation, with a bit of help from our friends.That is the collective action dilemma.

The logic underpinning collective action theory was first articulated by Mancur Olson in 1965 where he explained why group members may not always act together to further their group interest. Often, rational individuals in the group are unwilling to make the sacrifice, instead they prefer to stick to the status quo. He argued that rational individuals will not voluntarily act to achieve collective interest unless there are separate incentives (tangible or intangible) to do so. Such separate  incentives must be distinct from the achievement of the common or group interest is offered to members of the group individually on the condition that they will help bear the cost or burden involved in the achievement of group objectives. Let me bring the argument home. That Nigerians are angry with the PDP does not mean that they will automatically show up to vote the party out during the next elections. The assumption that popular anger against the  PDP translates to a popular support for the APC is a misleading hypothesis.

Do not get me wrong here. When I talk about incentives, I want us to go beyond the mundane. Many Nigerians still feel that the APC is another PDP in a different uniform. The message of change has yet to be articulated beyond a slogan. Granted the APC might have brought its foreign consultants to have a second look at the party and make recommendations for strategic packaging. That is a nice move. However, I argue that many of the problems that the APC is currently contending with are predominantly context specific and will  take the best foreign consultants some time to decipher. It is an undeniable fact that many things that happen in Nigerian politics defy logic.

Let me talk about three practical issues that can provide a lead to the nature of the incentives that Nigerians require. Up till date, the APC has not chosen a presidential candidate. Nigerians have been waiting. Questions are being asked. Some people are becoming impatient. There have been various speculations and permutations but the party has yet to make  its official position public . There is danger in this delay because of many things. Their choice of a presidential candidate will speak volumes about how serious the party is about the change message it is preaching. Its presidential candidate must not only symbolise  change but must have the courage and following to operationalise it. He or she must come without a baggage. Many people within its fold fit into this description. Its choice should be able to trigger Nigerians to overcome the collective action dilemma to move against the PDP. There are those who insist that some alleged high level transactional politicians are working to offer the candidature to the highest bidder. Others speculate that the delay is deliberate so that a relatively unpopular candidate will be imposed to make it easier for a behind-the-scene deal making as was the case in 2011. Needless to guess the consequences that such moves will attract from the Nigerian people. The APC will be buried forever.

The second point is about the accusations and counter-accusations of the religious inclination of the party. That is the same accusation levelled against the PDP and its leader, President Jonathan. It is a trap. Those who accuse the APC insist that a majority of the interim officials of the party were drawn from a particular religion. Instead of being in denial, the APC would have hastened to organise a convention and deliberately given the party positions a wider spread. Religion is a very sensitive spot in Nigerian politics and any political party that ignores how far it can affect the mentality of Nigerians is doing that at its own peril. The third point I must raise is about growing intra-party conflict and the losses the APC has incurred so far from it. At the last count, the party has lost prominent members in Sokoto, Kano, Kwara, and now Adamawa states. Now the latest is the spat between Senator Ahmed Tinubu and Senator Alimodu Sheriff. That these avoidable losses are gains for the PDP are issues that cannot be dismissed. The issues of ego and selfishness allegedly creeping into the APC will hatch into intra-specific competition that takes species to the route of extinction. This is very unsettling.

Finally, let me drive home this collective action dilemma that must be overcome if the APC intends to make a headway in the next elections. Let us consider that in some states today, many professional politicians are still sitting on the fence watching every singular move and plotting for their next action. They have no other profession besides politics and so want to do everything to remain relevant enough to keep scooping from public funds. Many Senators and some members of the House of Representatives fall into that category. Their motivation to carefully choose their affiliation has nothing to do with altruism. They simply want to remain relevant in the scheme of things. An analyst once confided in me that many of the states in the South-South will not want to be in the opposition. That means that this category of people do not have preference for any party or even any individual per se. They only want to be part of the party in power at the centre. That means that if the APC demonstrates a clear road map to the Presidency, these ones will join immediately.  My argument here is that the party is still miles away from that trajectory. Acting promptly on the points above will lead to a harvest of low hanging fruits.

Albert Einstein was quoted as saying that the best definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. If the APC still intends to form government at the centre in 2015, it must pay the price for Nigerians to move along with it.